Generated from the day's market reporting and GoldPrice.Live's own price data, under Rick Adams' editorial guidelines. Sources are linked. Not investment advice.
Spot gold and silver finished lower on Monday as a firmer US dollar, stronger oil and elevated US Treasury yields offset safe-haven demand tied to the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S.-Iran tensions. Spot gold was trading near $4,168.90 an ounce, down 0.59%, while spot silver was near $60.120, down 0.96% on the session.
Short-term Fed expectations have shifted after softer US data, but markets still put only about a 17% chance on an October hike and an 87.7% probability of at least one rise by December. Traders are waiting for September CPI on Wednesday, then PPI and retail sales on Thursday. Meanwhile the US dollar was firmer and the 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.24% before a US cash-bond holiday, keeping pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical risk for energy and metals. Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said recent US responses were insufficient and there will be no talks until Tehran’s conditions are met. Oil prices rose: Brent settled near $106.65 a barrel and Nymex WTI was around $93.74, lifting inflation concerns that in turn keep policy and yield risk alive for bullion.
Technically, bulls need a push above the $4,220.89–$4,226.82 zone to aim for $4,271.57 and $4,311.17, while a break below $4,175.03 would open targets at $4,154.99 and $4,141.86. For silver, resistance sits at roughly $61.50–$61.72, with support near $59.96. Trade Nation’s David Morrison warned gold may need to retest "major support around $4,000" before momentum resets. FOREX.com’s Fawad Razaqzada said the recent rebound "has lost some momentum" as the dollar and yields remain elevated.
It’s a familiar tug of war: geopolitical risk and ETF or central-bank demand underwrite the market, but the dollar and real yields control day-to-day moves. The coming US inflation releases and how markets price Fed and fiscal risks are likely to be the next decisive factors for gold and silver.
Source: Kitco
