A summary of the day's market activity.
Gold had eased to around $4,180 an ounce on Monday after hitting a one-week high earlier in the session, as a firm US dollar and cautious positioning ahead of key US data put pressure on bullion. Traders were braced for US consumer and producer price reports and retail sales that could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
The dollar sat near its strongest level in 18 months, supported in part by Middle East tensions and by demand for safe assets ahead of the US inflation prints. A stronger dollar tends to knock the appeal of dollar-priced bullion, and higher Treasury yields would add to that headwind. Markets have scaled back the chance of a Fed rate rise this month to under 20%, while pricing about an 85% probability of a hike by December, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Gold’s bounce to a one-week high earlier in the session shows holders remain willing to bid at these levels when risk ticks up, but the competing influence of data-driven rate expectations keeps a cap on gains. Recent moves have been driven less by supply and jewellery demand and more by shifts in expectations for US monetary policy and the dollar’s path - a familiar pattern for global bullion markets.
Attention will be on the US CPI and PPI releases and retail sales for fresh clues on whether the Fed will need to tighten further. The IMF-World Bank annual meetings will bring central bankers and officials together, offering occasional commentary that can nudge markets. If inflation prints surprise to the upside, dollar and yield strength could resume and test the recent support for gold; softer numbers would remove some of the pressure, though market positioning may still limit any sharp rally.
Source: Tradingview
