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Bank of America left its near-term gold view unchanged on Monday, saying the metal is unlikely to remain above $4,000 an ounce over the coming three months. The call hinges on soft physical buying in several major markets, even as exchange-traded funds have continued to attract money.
Private holders and bullion desks should care because the forecast comes from a major bank and rests on demand patterns that can alter how prices respond to macro moves such as Fed policy and dollar strength.
The analysts set a fourth-quarter 2026 average for gold of $4,000 an ounce and left a calendar‑2027 average at $4,813. In an earlier note they flagged a possible fourth‑quarter low of $3,750 if high energy costs keep inflation elevated. Spot gold had been trading near $4,168.90 an ounce, down about 0.59% for the session when the bank published its commentary.
Bank of America pointed to two demand puzzles. First, while ETFs have seen favourable inflows over the past two months, the bank warned those flows could turn into selling if prices soften. Second, tracking suggests physical buyers such as some central banks, China and India have cut purchases recently, reducing a traditional source of support. The analysts also argued much of recent gains in headline gold holdings were driven by valuation moves rather than fresh buying.
The bank says clearer direction from the Federal Reserve is needed before gold finds a durable bottom. It expects a dovish pivot from the Fed would be the strongest bullish catalyst, but also notes a scenario in which renewed worries about US dollar debasement could lift the metal. Specifically, if the Treasury leant on short‑term issuance and the Fed kept short rates low, pressure on the dollar could revive gold demand. Middle East hostilities are another wild card the bank highlights; they could either spur buying or prompt some central banks to sell.
Source: Indexbox
